The air freight sector has witnessed a significant 13% increase in volume in the first two months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to data released by WorldACD Market Data. This surge in air cargo volumes marks a robust start to the year, driven primarily by strong demand from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) regions, coupled with a considerable recovery following the traditional dip associated with the Chinese Lunar New Year.
February's preliminary figures show an 8% year-on-year increase in shipments, a figure that adjusts to 4% when accounting for the extra day in a leap year, following a 17% growth in January. WorldACD Market Data highlights the bi-monthly comparison to mitigate the variability caused by the differing dates of the Chinese New Year in 2023 and 2024, which was moved three weeks compared to the previous year. Analysts note that demand has nearly fully rebounded from the post-holiday dip, especially in the crucial Asia Pacific origin region.
Looking at the last complete week, namely the ninth week of the year (from February 26 to March 3), the total global air freight tons increased by 2% compared to the previous week, after a 13% rebound in the eighth week. This follows a decrease of 11% and 10% in the two weeks immediately before and after the Chinese New Year, respectively.
When extending the comparison to a two-week period, tons in the eighth and ninth weeks saw a 7% increase compared to the two preceding weeks. This recovery is largely attributed to a surge in demand from the Asia Pacific, where tons increased by 15%. Air traffic from Asia Pacific to Europe and from Asia Pacific to North America grew by 3%, while intra-Asia Pacific traffic experienced a significant 44% recovery. Other intercontinental routes also reported robust bi-weekly tonnage recoveries, including inbound traffic to Asia Pacific from Europe (21%), from the Middle East and South Asia (16%), and from North America (8%).
As the disruptions related to the Western and Chinese New Years and Valentine's Day recede, yearly comparisons become relevant again, highlighting a notable shift from the previous year. Tonnage from the MESA origin region remains up by 22%, as major air-maritime hubs between Asia and Europe continue to see increased tonnage, a phenomenon linked to disruptions in container shipping in the Red Sea.
In particular, Dubai, Colombo, and Bangkok have experienced exceptionally high air cargo demand in recent weeks. Air freight traffic from Dubai to Europe in the ninth week was more than double (+154%) compared to the same period last year. However, tonnage in this week was 23% lower than the previous week, suggesting a potential easing of demand.
