Monthly data on European road transport capacity, released by TransportIntelligence using data from the Transporeon transport exchange, shows that May 2024 experienced the fifth consecutive month of shrinking availability of industrial vehicles. This decrease is 7% compared to May of the previous year and 4.9% compared to April 2024. The index stands at 94.67, considering that the initial index value (set at 100) dates back to January 2021. A value below 100 indicates a context of limited road transport capacity.
The peak value of the index (110) emerged in July-August 2022, indicating that the demand for road transport exceeded supply. After a slight decline, the index remained relatively stable (with values ranging from 100 to 105) until May 2023. By the end of that year, it showed fluctuating trends, peaking at around 110 in January 2024. A steady decline began afterward, dropping below 100 in March 2024.
TransportIntelligence notes that recent GDP data from the euro area shows growth slightly above forecasts, with major economies performing better than the April 2024 IMF Regional Economic Outlook estimates. This rebound is driven by improved consumer and business sentiment, with household incomes supported by stable labor markets contributing to an earnings recovery.
Analysts suggest that the contraction in road transport supply is also due to upcoming sporting events, such as the Paris Olympics and the 2024 European Championships, leading to increased transport volumes in France and Germany, the two largest European economies, further reducing road transport capacity.
This also results in rising rates. In percentage terms, the spot rate index increased by 6.8% in May 2024 compared to April 2024, representing a 12.5% year-on-year increase. The contract rate index rose by 3.1% year-on-year and by 0.3% month-on-month, reaching a value of 125.42 in May 2024. Looking ahead, the lack of capacity, combined with increased consumer demand, could further drive up spot and contract prices, as observed in June 2022.
