Air shipments from China to Europe have bounced back to pre-Golden Week levels from early October, while cargo volumes from Hong Kong to Europe have seen further growth over the last six weeks, reaching the highest levels this year. This uptick hints at a broader demand for air transport from this crucial origin market. This summary was released by WorldACD Market Data on October 25, 2024.
Volume from Hong Kong to Europe in week 42 (October 14-20) was 25% higher than the same period last year, with weeks 40-42 reflecting a 12% increase over September’s weekly average. Spot freight rates from Hong Kong to Europe crossed the $5 per kilogram mark, fluctuating between $5.04 and $5.31 and settling at $5.15 in week 42. Rates for China-to-Europe shipments also rose to $4.29 per kilogram, with both routes seeing a 13% year-over-year increase.
Other Asia-Pacific markets reported notable volume increases to Europe in week 42, including Thailand (+27%) and Vietnam (+26%). However, spot rates from these two markets to Europe surged by 87% and 61%, respectively, compared to last year, underscoring substantial price growth. The consistent market rise from Hong Kong to Europe over the past six weeks, despite typically negative effects from Golden Week, stands as an early indicator of a potential significant air transport peak in this year’s fourth quarter.
Globally, average rates rose slightly in the second week of October, while volumes declined across several major origin regions. The most significant drop came from the Middle East and South Asia (Mesa) regions, where tonnage to Europe fell by 8% in week 42, following a 4% decline the previous week. More than half of this reduction was due to a sharp drop in chargeable weight on shipments from Dubai to Europe (-22%).
Volumes from Mesa to the United States also declined by 6% in week 42, with a 3% drop from India and consecutive double-digit percentage declines from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Spot rates from Mesa to the U.S. decreased from $5.02 per kilogram in week 40 to $4.69 in week 42, a nearly 7% decrease but still an 80% increase compared to the same period last year.
Overall, global volumes in week 42 fell by 1% from the previous week but remained 4% above last year’s levels, with all major origin regions showing a 2% to 5% increase. Global rates rose by 2%, bringing them 10% above last year’s levels, with spot rates growing 19%, driven by significant rate increases from Asia-Pacific (+25%) and Mesa (+82%).
Regarding volumes from Asia-Pacific to the U.S., total freight continued to recover in week 42, driven by a 10% increase in shipments from China. However, year-on-year, China-U.S. volumes remain notably lower (-18%), part of a broader downward trend in the second half of this year, attributed to stricter customs regulations on air freight arrivals in the U.S., particularly in Los Angeles, where volumes from China plummeted by 37% compared to last year. Despite the volume decline, spot rates from Asia-Pacific to the U.S. increased by 3%, reaching $6.23 per kilogram, marking a 42% year-on-year rise. Spot rates from China to the U.S. climbed to $5.41 per kilogram, a 10% increase compared to last year.
